Pick #5: Barnsley vs BLACKPOOL

After a risk-free international break and a very unsuccessful NFL week 1 (more on that tomorrow) its back to classic english football, with a full saturday fixture list.

Van Persie rescued me last week with a last minute miracle; watching it we all know it shouldn't happen, but knowi ts going to anyway. I can't see anyone else scoring for United at the moment, if Rooney and Van Persie are spending long spells out with injuries, they don't look a patch on City. Both Manchesters hold fairly good value this weekend, 4/11 for United at home to Wigan (an easier game when both the title isn't on the line and Wigan haven't decided to again rescue their season in the last few weeks.) City are 7/10 away at Stoke, never an easy place to play but the type of game that ultimately wins the league. city also lost this fixture last year, with a wonderstrike from Peter Crouch.

Sunderland and Liverpool looks good for a draw at 5/2, value can also be found for Swansea, 2/1 away at the struggling Aston Villa. The draw also wouldn't be a bad bet at 12/5.

This week's banker pick is Blackpool who currently look the best side in the division, playing slick football and most certainly the favourites for top 6 at the end of the year. The third week in a row I've chosen an away side may pose a risk, but if they continue to perform to their current standards, they should run away against an inferior Barnsley side.

PICK #5: £9.12 on BLACKPOOL TO BEAT BARNSLEY within the 90 mins @ 20/21

NFL Week 1: St. Louis Rams @ DETROIT LIONS (-7)

It's finally here, the NFL is back and every week I'll be making just one banker pick that can hopefully multiply a single pound.

Most of the week 1 temptations are for the favourites, with the Texans still looking a strong bet even after a shift from -8 to -12.5. The Eagles have a point to prove this year, and value of evens can be found at -9, away against Cleveland.

Teams with a positive handicap look much harder to choose; Buffalo may sneak a win away at the Jets, who have many questions heading into this season. Carolina are also carrying promise of an away win at Tampa Bay.

New England's game against Tennessee is one I would leave, with my only recommendation that it may go over 47 points.

A long-odds pick is the 49ers to win against Green Bay; they're more than capable. That's around 2/1

My poundtoathousand pick for week 1 is the DETROIT LIONS -7 at Evens.

At home to a less talented Rams side, the Lions have a point to prove this season; they are good enough to challenge the elite.

The NFL Begins! Long-term Picks

 
After two thirds of the year without the sport, America's game is back, with week 1 of the season tonight. Here's a quick  run-down of my tips for the long-term.

To Make The Playoffs

DETROIT LIONS @ 6/5
After what would be seen by many as a successful season last year, Detroit are looking only to improve. This won't be an easy task, but from what was shown last year and the squad they have on paper, they are more than capable of slipping into the NFC's top 6.

CAROLINA PANTHERS @ 7/2
Boasting a young quarterback that screams both talent and potential, the Panthers finished last season with impressive flashes of offensive flare. Last season's display was a perfect example of a team with the best yet to come; the question is how soon that day will arrive. Making the playoffs is by no means an easy feat, but establishing consistency and making a good run in could see Carolina slip into a wild-card spot.

To Win The Divison

NFC EAST - Philadelphia Eagles @ 9/5
The division can truly go three ways, which justifies the fairly long odds for the Eagles. In context, last year was a failure of a season for Philadelphia, with their more than capable squad never quite pulling it together with any consistency. If they can maintain a good record within the division, I can see the Eagles topping the Giants and Cowboys come January.

AFC WEST - Denver Broncos 15/8
Ditching the unorthadox flare of young Tebow for a quarterback that churned consistency before his injury, the Broncos can mount a serious run providing Peyton Manning has recovered well. Denver's home advantage and solid defense can make the Broncos a team no-one looks forward to on the schedule.

To Win The Superbowl

Houston Texans @ 12/1

Last season, the Texans were riding a third string quarterback in the playoffs, beating the Bengals and only one score away from beating the Ravens. The beauty of the superbowl is that it's wide open, and a good run of form can work wonders to a team heading into the post season; last year there was questions of the Giants even making the playoffs. Houston has the pieces, if they're put together I can see them pipping the Patriots, Ravens and Steelers for that night in New Orleans.

San Francisco 49ers @ 15/1
The team I truly thought would win the NFC last year. I felt so right when they beat the Saints, then so wrong when the ball got dropped in overtime. Again the same questions rise with the 49ers; is their quarterback good enough? Their offense lost the game against the Giants last year, Smith played a safe game that a killer pass from a Rodgers or Brady would have won. Their defense was formidable last season, and I can only see improvement from the offense this year. Perhaps it was because of their heartbreaking elimination last year, but I truly can see the 49ers with a ring in New Orleans.

Week 1 Picks to follow.

Pick #4 - Southampton vs MANCHESTER UNITED

First and foremost, Leeds finished with a 2-1 away win against the struggling Peterborough last week, who don't look in much better shape travelling to Birmingham Saturday. Chelsea and Man United justified their favoured priced, and Everton proved a sensible pick.

Sunderland's game was rained off, a real Premier League rarity in the modern day. Bristol City slotted away four more against a Cardiff side that are yet to show their best - I was a second away from choosing Cardiff over Leeds last week. Notts county also lost to big underdogs Walsall by a single late goal.

Midweek's cup fixtures were swerved for good reason, as shown by Blackburn and Leicester's losses. Looking to this weekend, only City are heavily priced, 2/9 at home to the mid-revolution QPR. Looking to the lower leagues, Yeovil are off to a flying start, and are priced around 6/4 at home to Doncaster. After announcing plans for a Jessica Ennis stand, Sheffield United host Bournemouth, priced about evens. MK Dons host Carlisle at a similar price.

As always, value can be found in the championship, with Middlesborough 2/1 away at Millwall. Blackburn head to Leeds in what I can see being a score draw, with the draw priced at 5/2.

The Prem holds some interesting fixtures Sunday; Aston Villa look no more promising than last season, and have to travel to St. James Park to face Newcastle, who are favoured at 4/6. Liverpool host another top club, with the draw a possibility again at 5/2. The correct score of 1-1 is relatively short at 6/1 odds.

My pick this week is another away favourite; Manchester United. Despite an opening loss to Everton, and shaky moments against Fulham, Man United are ultimately one of the best sides in the country. Southampton followed an impressive fight against City with a home loss to Wigan, making a bounce back on national TV this weekend essential. The major reason for this week's pick is a consistent theme; Manchester United are the better team and the quality on paper is far superior. The beauty of the Premier League is how anybody can beat anybody on the day. All we can go off is logic, and the quality of players like Van Persie do outweigh the talents of Southampton, a team I believe will stay up this season.

Pick #4 - MANCHESTER UNITED to beat Southampton within the 90 minutes at 1/2.

After this week (providing United win) the money will be paid in and bets will be placed online; shorter odds from bookmaker shops have cost me 25% already.

Pick #3 - Peterborough United vs LEEDS UNITED

Doncaster left it late midweek to beat a 10 man Bury, but the ball keeps rolling. Burton had a more than convincing 6-2 win against Wimbledon and Huddersfield nabbed a late point against the impressive Nottingham Forest. Wednesday was a day of temptation; impatience left we wondering whether or not to choose Chelsea at 3/10 against Reading. Nothing more than timing prevented me from placing the last minute bet, a decision that left me with relief at half-time and regret at full-time.

 

This weekend's fixtures look very interestingly priced. The heaviest major favourite is Manchester United at home to Fulham, priced as low as 1/5 with some bookies. Chelsea are around 1/2 against Newcastle, surprisingly heavy considering the calibre of their opposition. With Chelsea's shaky albeit productive opening pair of wins, Newcastle hold some serious value as an outsider at 6/1.

 

Sunderland seriously tempted me earlier in the week; they're 4/5 in their first home game to Reading. My only problem is how willing Reading may be to settle for a point if they were to sneak an early lead. Everton are away at Aston Villa; going off the two team's opening games Everton may hold the edge. Cardiff's odds have been shortening down to 6/5; they play away to Bristol City, who were terrible last year at home but managed an impressive 4-1 win earlier in the week against Crystal Palace.

 

Like Cardiff, Middlesborough are another team to be potentially pushing for promotion this season. They host Crystal Palace this week at the Riverside who don't look too impressive so far. Notts County are losing value at home to Walsall, down from 5/6, now as low as 6/10. A treble of Everton, Cardiff and Notts County can pay as high as 10/1 dependant on the bookmaker.

 

My pick this week is not one I hold complete confidence in. The price is tasty, with £6.08 returns off £2.70, but that's only with a win. Peterborough have had a nasty start to the season, losing their first two games, one against a Millwall side that they may not be too far from come the end of the season. However, this also means that they need to grab something at home this weekend.

 

Leeds have had a difficult off-season; Warnock's used an inadequate budget to built a surprisingly solid defence. Going forward they do lack creativity, but the likes of Becchio and McCormack are more than capable of finishing whatever chances they get. Ultimately, of the two sides on the pitch this Saturday, Leeds are the superior, and if this game were played at Elland Road, the Yorkshire side would be a banker. I can see Peterborough eventually picking up how they looked early on last year; an entertaining, creative side with a chance of beating anyone on the day. Just, not yet.

 

Where these sides currently are, Leeds look the much better. This week does hold much more of a 'gamble,' but if the prediction pays off, its one step closer from a pound to a thousand.

  

Pick #2 - DONCASTER ROVERS vs Bury

MK Dons eventually broke through in the second half against Oldham, opening the season with a comfortable 2-0 win. Leicester, Sheffield united and Chelsea were also good bets and a reliable treble.

Intially, tonight's fixtures looked too close to call, leaving me leaning towards a patient wait for the weekend fixtures. However, divulging deeper into the football league matchups, several teams tempted me into risking week one's £1.62 returns. Burton Albion look an appealing bet against AFC Wimbledon, with very good value at 7/5. A fixture that makes me wonder tonight is Huddersfield vs Nottingham Forest. I'm still not completely convinced the newly built forest is completely ready, and in their first home game of the season I could see Huddersfield nabbing a win at 17/10.

The solid bet for me tonight looks like Doncaster Rovers, at home to Bury. On paper the recently relegated Rovers look to still possess enough quality to start their home form with a win, priced somewhere between 5/6 and 4/6.

Pick #2: DONCASTER ROVERS to beat Bury within the 90 minutes at 4/6.

Pick #1 - MK DONS vs Oldham Athletic.

The season opener is never an easy one to call. All you can go off are last year's performances and unproven summer deals. On the flip side, this is the same case for the bookies, with few teams favoured too heavily. A treble of Leicester, Sheffield United and Chelsea will pay around 3/1 depending on the bookmaker.

My first pick off the season is based mostly on last season, as well as expectations for the current year taken into account. Last season the MK Dons were consistently a reliable addition to an accumulator, often favoured but reasonably priced. Promotion was a pair of playoff games away from the Dons last year, and top six is the least I expect from them this time round.

Pick #1: MK DONS to beat Oldham Athletic within the ninety minutes at 8/13.

Only after placing the bet did I care to look about for a better price - Coral are offering 8/11, a significant difference when bigger money is on the line.